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1) @CFKArgentina remains “an ideal candidate for the government to face,” with a low ceiling for support and a heavy docket of corruption charges that means she's “likely to face a tough calendar, not only political but also legal," @jpmorgan writes in a new report. #Argentina
2) Meanwhile, “traditional Peronism lacks identity and leadership,” and will struggle to consolidate. @SergioMassa needs to run to attract support for his congressional candidates, and Governor @UrtubeyJM has no alternative, as he is unable to compete for a fourth term in Salta.
3) Still, President @mauriciomacri's reelection is not assured, @jpmorgan reports, and the “market will be scrutinizing the results of even the small provinces” in the run-up to October's vote. That said, there is a “limited probability of populism returning” to #Argentina.
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