1) In a new, upbeat #Argentina report, @Citi observes “green shoots” in December (e.g., low but increasing consumer confidence) and projects 0% growth this year and 3% growth in 2020: “The worst is behind us,” the analysts say.
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2) That speedy recovery,
@Citi says, is likely because of the unusual inverse relationship in#Argentina between economic activity and inflation, which is now decelerating thanks to the recession. (The mechanism: lower real wages depress economic activity.)1 reply 0 retweets 1 likeShow this thread -
3) Finally,
@Citi also sees continued peso stability, despite a general trend of emerging market currency volatility during presidential campaigns.1 reply 0 retweets 2 likesShow this thread
4) It’s worth noting that 0% growth is nothing to brag about, but it’d better than the 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018 recessions, and it would signal a recovery just in time for the election.
7:49 AM - 22 Jan 2019
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