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1) In a new, upbeat #Argentina report, @Citi observes “green shoots” in December (e.g., low but increasing consumer confidence) and projects 0% growth this year and 3% growth in 2020: “The worst is behind us,” the analysts say.
2) That speedy recovery, @Citi says, is likely because of the unusual inverse relationship in #Argentina between economic activity and inflation, which is now decelerating thanks to the recession. (The mechanism: lower real wages depress economic activity.)
3) Finally, @Citi also sees continued peso stability, despite a general trend of emerging market currency volatility during presidential campaigns.
4) It’s worth noting that 0% growth is nothing to brag about, but it’d better than the 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018 recessions, and it would signal a recovery just in time for the election.
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