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1) #Argentina’s $56 billion #IMF program, the largest in history, is advancing smoothly, as President @mauriciomacri shows a “very strong” commitment to fixing a troubled economy, @CreditSuisse’s Casey Reckman said Monday at @LATAMProg’s @TheWilsonCenter round table.pic.twitter.com/urI0G7s1sX
2) Meanwhile, though the #IMF program is procyclical, #Brazil’s economic recovery offers tailwinds, boosting #Argentina’s “more meaningful,” labor-intensive manufactured exports, @CreditSuisse’s Casey Reckman said.https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-challenges-macroeconomic-stability-argentina-what-comes-next …
3) That said, #Argentina’s approach to budget cuts is “not the best quality” fiscal adjustment, @UBS’s Alejo Czerwonko noted at @TheWilsonCenter, relying upon temporary export taxes and avoiding entitlement reform.pic.twitter.com/i0Ga4gnEYA
4) Nor will #Argentina see a big short-term gain from the peso depreciation, which the government hopes will counterbalance the contractionary ajuste, @UBS’s Alejo Czerwonko said, with the impact mostly seen in ballooning debt. “The pain,” he said, “outweighs the gain.”
5) The #IMF program does offer #Argentina breathing room through next year’s election, but 2020 could be rough, @jpmorgan’s Diego Pereira said at @TheWilsonCenter, with expected Fed rate hikes and a slowing U.S. economy straining emerging markets.pic.twitter.com/TILKfv1xtV
6) And though the peso has stabilized (“so far, so good”), @jpmorgan’s Diego Pereira said #Argentina must find a way to lower inflation and interest rates to regain confidence abroad and at home, and restart its economy.
7) In that effort, the electoral calendar is a burden, as investors seek not only fiscal consolidation, but also political continuity, @UBS’s Alejo Czerwonko said: “There are a lot of questions about what’s going to happen on the political front.”pic.twitter.com/zJnrcca6Y8
8) Also out of President @mauriciomacri’s control (by definition): external shocks. The U.S.-#China trade war could intensify, for example, slowing #Argentina’s recovery and jeopardizing the government’s reelection, @UBS’s Alejo Czerwonko said.
9) Fortunately, the #IMF is in #Argentina’s corner, said Meg Lundsager, a former U.S. executive director, who moderated the @LATAMProg panel. @IMFNews, she said, “has a lot riding on the success of this program.”pic.twitter.com/y6ef5lkRJK
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