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1) An important note for anyone hoping for a quick economic recovery in #Argentina: the #IMF program not only curtails money printing and requires a 0% primary deficit in 2019, it also mandates interest rates >60% until inflation expectations drop "decisively."pic.twitter.com/X57BHlAplX
2) On the bright side, a @jpmorgan research note says the #IMF is providing "political support to the government in the electoral year" by permitting two additional, one-time payments under #Argentina's Asignación Universal por Hijo program and bonuses to public employees.
3) But the political burdens outweigh the social spending wiggle room. In addition to the recession (-2.8% GDP growth this year), President @mauriciomacri will have to answer critics worried about debt sustainability, as debt this year hits 81% of GDP, compared to 52% in 2015.pic.twitter.com/oPJqsfRyf6
4) Learn more about the #IMF's latest attempt to rescue #Argentina, and whether it will perform better this time around, as we gather top Wall Street analysts and former U.S. IMF Executive Director Meg Lundsager.https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-challenges-macroeconomic-stability-argentina-what-comes-next …
Worth noting that 60 pct annualized rates with monthly inflation above 5 pct represent negative real interest rates. That’s not stifling. And an appreciating real fx rate and cost of living adjustments for inflation should mean real wages rise in the first quarter 2019
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