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1/ #Argentina's trade deficit in August increased by 5 percent from last August. Total exports were down by 1.4 percent, and imports declined by 0.3 percent. In the first 8 months of 2018, total exports are up 4.1 percent and imports 9.6 percent. Let's decompose the data:https://twitter.com/INDECArgentina/status/1045027611288768513 …
2/ Exports in 2018 were affected by the drought. If one looks at more dynamic sectors, like industry and energy, the story is more positive. Subtracting agriculture, total exports in 2018 increased by 9 percent; in particular, energy exports surged by 81 percent.
3/ On the import side, the only variables that saw an increase in August were intermediate goods and lubricants and energy. The latter likely due to increased demand in winter months. Imports sensitive to the peso's value, like consumer & capital goods saw important declines.
4/ For 2019, the government predicts that exports will surge by 21 percent next year and imports by 2.8 percent. This is due to the end of the drought, a more competitive peso, increases in energy exports from Vaca Muerta and a recovering Brazilian economy.
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