1) A new @Citi report cites trade wars as the "main risk" to the global economy, with potentially significant impacts on #Mexico, and the rest of #LatinAmerica at risk of "collateral damage," should global trade decline and growth globally and in #China suffer.
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2) Some of the region's economies remain relatively closed, such as
#Argentina and#Brazil,@Citi notes. (By contrast,#Panama,#Mexico and#Chile are the most open economies in#LatinAmerica, based upon total exports and imports relative to GDP.)1 reply 1 retweet 1 likeShow this thread -
3) In
#Argentina, though economic activity has been correlated with global trade growth, exports have contributed relatively little to growth,@Citi observes. That said,#SouthAmerica is highly exposed to#China, which could see its demand for commodities drop in a trade war.1 reply 0 retweets 1 likeShow this thread -
4) The countries in
#LatinAmerica most exposed to#China (and therefore most vulnerable to falling Chinese demand and resulting declines in commodity prices) are#Chile,#Peru,#Brazil,#Uruguay and#Argentina, according to@Citi.1 reply 1 retweet 1 likeShow this thread
5) Notably, despite speculation about a possible upside for #LatinAmerica of a trade war (e.g., trade diversion, such as greater demand from #China for commodities previously purchased from the U.S.), @Citi sees no long-term advantages.
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