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1) A new @Citi report cites trade wars as the "main risk" to the global economy, with potentially significant impacts on #Mexico, and the rest of #LatinAmerica at risk of "collateral damage," should global trade decline and growth globally and in #China suffer.
2) Some of the region's economies remain relatively closed, such as #Argentina and #Brazil, @Citi notes. (By contrast, #Panama, #Mexico and #Chile are the most open economies in #LatinAmerica, based upon total exports and imports relative to GDP.)
3) In #Argentina, though economic activity has been correlated with global trade growth, exports have contributed relatively little to growth, @Citi observes. That said, #SouthAmerica is highly exposed to #China, which could see its demand for commodities drop in a trade war.
4) The countries in #LatinAmerica most exposed to #China (and therefore most vulnerable to falling Chinese demand and resulting declines in commodity prices) are #Chile, #Peru, #Brazil, #Uruguay and #Argentina, according to @Citi.
5) Notably, despite speculation about a possible upside for #LatinAmerica of a trade war (e.g., trade diversion, such as greater demand from #China for commodities previously purchased from the U.S.), @Citi sees no long-term advantages.
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