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4/ they also point to the imposition of the capital gains tax on financial instruments on April 26th to be correlated with the run on the peso, as the carry trade that maintained demand for the currency fell off.pic.twitter.com/9DMy7xXuLw
5/ the #IMF argues that the success of the program depends on the ability of the gvt to impose “upfront implementation” of fiscal adjustment. That is, the gvt will have to impose much of the cuts immediately and in ‘19, an election year. Goal: primary balance in ‘20.pic.twitter.com/BaBmPzCgHB
6/ part of the fiscal austerity will be shouldered by net contributors to the tax system, as planned tax cuts will have to be postponed.pic.twitter.com/SpfpaLHg0t
7/ a major area of adjustment will be in public sector, where there will be a hiring freeze a large decline in real salaries for public sector employees. Recently #Macri decreed a freeze, but this will set up the gvt for major conflict with combative public sector unions.pic.twitter.com/zfmVHCSM3s
8/ as per usual, the gvt capital expenditures will see a major decline in a period of austerity. The hope is that the effect of lower public spending will be compensated for by increase in private investment in infrastructure.pic.twitter.com/LEGmd0q05s
9/ another plank is it increase #transparency and #accountability for the gvt with the empowerment of the recently created Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso that is modeled off the US CBO.pic.twitter.com/GVtmKZNgEn
10/ #Macri put the cart before the horse in regards to inflation targeting, as the @BancoCentral_AR did not have sufficient autonomy or credibility for inflation targeting. Thus, a major plank of the program is Central Bank independence.pic.twitter.com/1zlvu4UaVv
11/ the central bank will maintain high interest rates as long as necessary to reduce inflation expectations. This will likely lead to lower economic activity and will be a real test for the gvt during an election year.pic.twitter.com/I2KnaQGQ5f
12/ And this is to emphasize the centrality of Central Bank independence to the success of the program. A challenge for many Argentine gvts has been to accept that areas of the state are off limits to executive interference. This is a real test of #Macri’s cambiemos moniker.pic.twitter.com/s94OhbmWZV
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