John Moseley

@ArcticMaths

A daily mathematical analysis of data, as the icepack begins decades of regrowth while Sol's magnetic field remains subdued.

37 parallels south of 90° N
Vrijeme pridruživanja: studeni 2019.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    18. sij

    Extent Primer Having spent time looking at , I'm breaking down the phases of each year into the following seasons: Growth: Oct 1st/Jan 31st Peak(s): Feb 1st/March 31st Slide: April 1st/30th Melt: April 1st/Aug 31st Recovery: Sept 1st/30th More to follow

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  2. 4. velj

    Decadal Extent Averages: Day 034 2010: 13,715,647 Sq Km 2012: 13,704,765 2013: 13,676,118 *2020*: 13,625,088 2014: 13,618,824 2015: 13,586,588 2019: 13,512,765 2011: 13,431,500 2016: 13,430,471 2017: 13,174,382 2018: 13,054,588 2020 & 2011 go up one place each

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  3. 4. velj

    Icepack Extent Day 034: 1980 15.383 million sq km 1990 15.340 (99.7%) 2000 14.963 (97.3%) *2020* 14.348 (93.3%) 2010 14.197 (92.3%) Tapping the brakes today, 2020 begins the Peak Season slowdown at a sustainable rate

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  4. 3. velj

    Icepack Extent Day 033: 1980 15.383 million sq km 1990 15.297 (99.4%) 2000 14.955 (97.2%) *2020* 14.323 (93.1%) 2010 14.154 (92.0%) Such over-enthusiasm will make Peak Season peakier than should be.  One push to Extent Maximum before a fighting retreat is best

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  5. 3. velj

    Study work for a time I feel inspired to take a swing at it. The only disconcerting bit is how is supposedly beyond its operational life. I assume Cryosat-3(?) is ready for launch or already in orbit

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  6. 2. velj

    Decadal Extent Averages: Day 032 2010: 13,686,906 Sq Km 2012: 13,681,469 2013: 13,635,531 2014: 13,580,906 *2020* 13,580,688 2015: 13,550,625 2019: 13,478,281 2016: 13,399,781 2011: 13,390,938 2017: 13,135,500 2018: 13,014,375

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  7. 2. velj

    Icepack Extent Day 032: 1980 15.291 million sq km 1990 15.236 (99.6%) 2000 14.936 (98.3%) *2020* 14.269 (93.9%) 2010 14.090 (92.7%) Peak Season begins at a brisk, sensible pace.  No idea how long it can last, so hoping for two weeks and a slower crawl up after

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  8. 1. velj

    January Extent Averages: 2010: 13,673,903 Sq Km 2012: 13,669,387 2013: 13,613,903 2014: 13,561,774 *2020* 13,558,484 2015: 13,533,129 2019: 13,459,452 2016: 13,383,871 2011: 13,370,323 2017: 13,116,097 2018: 12,996,548 January 2020 was a textbook month for growth

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  9. 1. velj

    (MULTIPLE) Growth Losses Between 1979 & 2020, 17 winters had (days) of Extent loss, rather than unbroken development (8) 16/17 (5) 85/86, 90/91, 05/06, 08/09, 11/12 (4) 02/03, 06/07 (3) 78/79, 80/81, 83/84, 94/95, 99/20, 04/05, 13/14 (2) 87/88, 10/11

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  10. 1. velj

    Growth Seasons NINETEEN 78/79 to *TWENTY 19/20* Out of 42 seasons, the following 9 winters had ONE day of Extent loss during what should have been an unbroken development TWENTY 14/15, 12/13, 07/08, 03/04 NINETEEN 96/97, 95/96, 93/94, 92/93, 79/80

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  11. 1. velj

    Growth Seasons NINETEEN 78/79 to *TWENTY 19/20* Out of 42 seasons, the following 16 winters had 123 days of unbroken development TWENTY *19/20*, 18/19, 17/18, 15/16, 09/10, 01/02, 00/01 NINETEEN 98/99, 97/98, 91/92, 89/90, 88/89, 86/87, 84/85, 82/83, 81/82

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  12. 1. velj

    Icepack Extent Day 031: 1980 15.291 million sq km 1990 15.180 (99.3%) 2000 14.915 (97.5%) *2020* 14.231 (93.1%) 2010 14.057 (91.9%) 123 days of unbroken Growth Season sees Winter 2019/20 develop as a complete success.  How long before scientists notice?

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  13. 31. sij

    Decadal Extent Average: Days 001 – 030 2010: 13,661,133 Sq Km 2012: 13,657,700 2013: 13,591,733 2014: 13,541,500 *2020* 13,536,067 2015: 13,516,267 2019: 13,439,80 2016: 13,367,633 2011: 13,349,567 2017: 13,095,400 2018: 12,980,800

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  14. 31. sij

    Icepack Extent Day 030: 1980 15.197 million sq km 1990 15.156 (99.7%) 2000 14.883 (97.9%) *2020* 14.187 (93.4%) 2010 14.047 (92.4%) Back at the ideal pace, 2020 looks set to make further consistent progression into the first half of Peak Season

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  15. 30. sij

    Decadal Extent Average: Days 001 – 029 2010: 13,647,828 Sq Km 2012: 13,645,828 2013: 13,568,517 2014: 13,519,759 *2020* 13,513,621 2015: 13,500,000 2019: 13,419,483 2016: 13,350,759 2011: 13,329,448 2017: 13,074,379 2018: 12,966,069

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  16. 30. sij

    Icepack Extent Day 029: 1980 15.197 million sq km 1990 15.108 (99.4%) 2000 14.832 (97.6%) *2020* 14.149 (93.1%) 2010 14.023 (92.3%) Just as Growth Season 19/20 appears to be slowing, January hits another gear.  123 days of unbroken strengthening is almost done

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  17. 29. sij

    Decadal Extent Average: Days 001 – 028 2010: 13,634,429 Sq Km 2012: 13,633,964 2013: 13,544,071 2014: 13,496,464 *2020* 13,490,929 2015: 13,483,143 2019: 13,398,786 2016: 13,333,714 2011: 13,309,714 2017: 13,052,321 2018: 12,951,214 2010 overtakes 2020

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  18. 29. sij

    Icepack Extent Day 028: 1980 15.176 million sq km 1990 15.071 (99.3%) 2000 14.776 (97.4%) *2020* 14.099 (92.9%) 2010 13.996 (92.2%) Slowing its fringe growth as January cones to an end, 2020 has the outer strength needed to slow the coming Melt Season assault

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  19. 28. sij

    Decadal Extent Average: Days 001 – 027 2012: 13,621,630 Sq Km 2010: 13,621,037 2013: 13,519,519 2014: 13,472,259 *2020* 13,468,407 2015: 13,465,370 2019: 13,377,222 2016: 13,316,630 2011: 13,290,000 2017: 13,027,370 2018: 12,935,44 2020 rises a place

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  20. 28. sij

    Icepack Extent Day 027: 1980 15.176 million sq km 1990 15.059 (99.2%) 2000 14.719 (97.0%) *2020* 14.038 (92.5%) 2010 13.979 (92.1%) 2020 continues a growth line reminiscent of the 1980's. Volatility = long-term losses.  Consistency is the hallmark of regrowth

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  21. 27. sij

    Decadal Extent Average: Days 001 – 026 2012: 13,608,962 Sq Km 2010: 13,607,269 2013: 13,495,154 2014: 13,447,462 2015: 13,446,808 *2020* 13,445,115 2019: 13,355,423 2016: 13,299,500 2011: 13,271,346 2017: 13,001,077 2018: 12,919,115 2015 drops a place

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