Annie DukeVerified account

@AnnieDuke

Speaker/writer/student of decision science. Author of . I used to play poker. Navigating uncertainty. Less “no.” More “I don’t know.”

Joined March 2009

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  1. Pinned Tweet
    13 Oct 2018

    Thinking about the long game today. 📖

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  2. 9 hours ago

    What Does Probability Mean in Your Profession? Brilliant from “Math with Bad Drawings” by

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  3. 13 hours ago

    “It’s 2/3rds if you switch, 1/3rd if you don’t. The probability locks in when you make the choice.” “Kevin is right.” “You’re fired.”

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  4. 20 hours ago

    “Enure yourself to consider that the nature of the universe delights in nothing more than in changing the things now existing.” Marcus Aurelius

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  5. Jan 3

    Great advice for ALL from : “There is a lesson here for everyone involved in scientific research: doubt your assumptions and your intuitions, even if … they look totally self-evident.” On why belief in hot hand fallacy persisted for so long.

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  6. Jan 3

    “Whether you’re deciding to change jobs, start a company, move to a new city or start a relationship, risk is not uncertainty but rather your exposure to bad outcomes.” - I agree. Often when we say risk aversion I think we mean fear of a bad result. 2/2

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  7. Jan 3

    “I have a pretty strongly-held belief that when it comes to making life decisions, people think about risk the wrong way. In the world of finance, risk = uncertainty, or ... the width of the distribution of outcomes; in life risk has a very different meaning.”- 1/2

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  8. Jan 3

    “In ... your ... life, you are forced to make daily trade-offs that ... expose you to luck which might not go your way. I have actually found this lesson quite liberating, because it forces me to worry only about what I can control.” So much great stuff in post.

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  9. Jan 3

    Yes. pointed me in the direction of the video. It is a must watch. I can’t figure out how the word “probability” never gets used during the interview.

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  10. Jan 3

    “It is very difficult for the prosperous to be humble.” – Jane Austen

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  11. Jan 2

    “A rabbit's foot may bring good luck to you, but it brought none to the rabbit.” – Ambrose Bierce

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  12. Jan 1

    If you have a lucky pair of underwear does that mean the rest of your underwear is net unlucky?

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  13. Jan 1

    Life is probabilistic. (Play with the slider in the article).

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  14. Jan 1

    “All things are in motion and nothing at rest. You cannot go into the same water twice.” – Heraclitus, as quoted by Plato.

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  15. Retweeted

    It’s not too late! Your gift in support of science education can be DOUBLED! A generous donor is matching up to $50,000 before MIDNIGHT tonight! Will your gift be the one to put us across the finish line?

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  16. 31 Dec 2018
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  17. 30 Dec 2018

    "When another reproaches or hates you, or utters any thing to that purpose; go to their souls: enter in there; and look what kind of men they are. You will see that you ought not to disturb yourself, in order to procure any opinion of theirs concerning you." ― Marcus Aurelius

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  18. 29 Dec 2018

    A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life. - Muhammad Ali

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  19. Retweeted
    27 Dec 2018

    John Stuart Mill explains, in 1869, why you can never win an argument on the internet.

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  20. 29 Dec 2018

    Setting up for NYE in Times Square.

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  21. 29 Dec 2018

    The best player I ever played with was Dennis Johnson. - Larry Bird

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