Annie DukeOvjeren akaunt

@AnnieDuke

Speaker/writer/student of decision science. Author of . I used to play poker. Navigating uncertainty. Less “no.” More “I don’t know.”

Vrijeme pridruživanja: ožujak 2009.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet

    New website for The Alliance for Decision Education is live! We believe: - Better decisions lead to better lives & a better society - Decision skills can be improved & must become a part of every student’s school experience If u agree, please sign pledge

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    We’re at talking about . If you care about decision skills for the next generation, stop by our table today!

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    23. sij

    Feuds between rival methods can be productive. But I see polling & prediction markets as each adding forecasting value. And here is some evidence of how these methods can complement each other:

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    23. sij

    Fascinating, 3-part framework for "How People Decide What They Want to Know" from & Tali Sharot: Hedonic, Instrumental, and Cognitive Utilities of Information. Well worth the time to read and consider (short too):

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  5. 21. sij
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  6. 21. sij

    Resulting = using the quality of the outcome to derive decision quality. Good result? Good decision. Bad result? Bad decision. Hindsight bias = you should have seen it coming, you *did* know it before hand, the outcome was inevitable. Also known as creeping determinism.

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  7. 20. sij

    Must read thread on hindsight bias from Our brains do us the “kindness” of making us mis-remember old beliefs to conform to what we know now, slowing learning. Do a real kindness for yourself and keep a record of the beliefs that inform your decisions.

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  8. 17. sij
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  9. 14. sij

    So grateful to Daniel Kahneman, Barbara Tversky, and Paul Slovic for their support of . Their thought leadership is invaluable.

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  10. 14. sij

    I guess I finally got that Ph.D. I bailed on to become a poker player :) Kidding aside, really appreciate the mention of resulting.

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  11. 7. sij

    Excited to see my new book, How to Decide, coming to life already! Manuscript just delivered, editing and layout has begun, and already a recommendation for 2020. So grateful! Thx !

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    6. sij

    The path of a maturing thinker. In order to get to Grown-Up Mountain and start real learning, you have to brave the cold winds of Insecure Canyon. If you're not willing to say "I don't know" for a while, you might spend your whole life on Child’s Hill.

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  13. 5. sij

    So true, Duolingo. So true.

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    26. pro 2019.

    To exercise your brain, don’t exercise your brain and ignore all the brain training stuff. Just exercise—and In particular physical exercise that is also cognitively engaging rather than mindless:

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  15. It was nice to wake up to this morning nearly two year after came out😎 I am so grateful to all of my readers. Thank you for taking this journey with me!

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    20. pro 2019.

    Another classic - Shepard's tables. The tops of each table are exactly the same size and shape!

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  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    16. pro 2019.

    So true—but also so much easier to agree in principle than to implement in practice. We swoon to the rhetoric of open-mindedness but our true love is the comfy familiarity of closed-mindedness

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  18. To be clear, you can disagree without being disagreeable or confrontational. For example, you can simply say that you think about the problem differently and then offer up your view without saying the other person is wrong.

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  19. And if you are the one who’s belief is wrong, by keeping quiet you deny yourself the opportunity to correct a faulty belief that will inform all of your future decisions. That is being unkind to yourself.

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  20. If a friend says something you disagree with and you don’t speak up, you might think you are being kind. But every decision they make in the future that’s informed by that false belief will suffer. True kindness is offering them the opportunity to adjust their belief.

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  21. Remember that your future-self is depending on you to be open-minded to stuff that contradicts the things you believe now. Even better, to eagerly embrace it.

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