Thinking abt sovereignty as a binary is limiting. The ability of the real (ie US/CHN/RUS) sovereigns to impose will is limited & depletable.
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..and those expectations can be updated Fast, by something not previously priced in.
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.. I hate to be the guy that turns everything into a finance analogy, but here is one:
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Accurately projecting a few quarters P&L : sell side analyst :: _________: political scientists..
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..the thing that fills in that blank isnt the political science equivalent of market value (bc emh & all that.) The real is outside.
End of conversation
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