Trump was not on a trajectory to win the election in any case, but after today’s coup the GOP owns the loss in the eyes of millions..
they have indeed been lagging indicators this cycle, and not hugely liquid. But still the best predictors we have.
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I look at the betting markets and see what you'd expect from a bunch of idiots naively following CNN polls
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So I don't rate the date from those more highly than I rate the data in dem-skewed polls
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Ive not run regressions against polls (
@joeykrug prob has). But I just don't have reason to second-guess the huge gap -
I'm mostly thinking in terms of predicting vote share/turn out from different demographics in terms of past
End of conversation
New conversation -
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There are many valid reasons to suspect Trump won't win, but I'm skeptical they're reflected in bet-markets.
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