Trump was not on a trajectory to win the election in any case, but after today’s coup the GOP owns the loss in the eyes of millions..
betting market data. FL/VA/PA were always longshots, then he started slipping in NC/OH. http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner …pic.twitter.com/hVCJpEvZDI
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My impression was predictions markets have frictions that make them lagging indicators. You give predictwise indep. weight?
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Betting markets reflect the biases of the bettors, nothing more. Nobody should hail them as any kind of oracle.
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Another example: All the dipshits who invested in the housing market leading up to the crash.
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they have indeed been lagging indicators this cycle, and not hugely liquid. But still the best predictors we have.
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I look at the betting markets and see what you'd expect from a bunch of idiots naively following CNN polls
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So I don't rate the date from those more highly than I rate the data in dem-skewed polls
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Ive not run regressions against polls (
@joeykrug prob has). But I just don't have reason to second-guess the huge gap -
I'm mostly thinking in terms of predicting vote share/turn out from different demographics in terms of past
End of conversation
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