Hmmm that's a neighboring issue. Right? Known knowns is about search breadth, decision theory.
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Replying to @InaneImperium @Logo_Daedalus
Rummy's matrix speaks to both search space (awareness) and outcomes' probability distributions (understanding)
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what I like about fitting it into a risk/uncertainty framework is it's easier to intuit the massive...
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negative real option-value of the unknown unknowns.
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Replying to @AngloRemnant @Logo_Daedalus
I really like your schema, but as I see it uncertainty falls under Understanding (iow stats is only part of U.)
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Possibly there could be a nested hierarchy where uncertainty relates to "search wrt probabilities", however!
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there are reasons to doubt that is coherent. Also, unclear why UUs would have "neg real option value", clarify?
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Replying to @InaneImperium @Logo_Daedalus
Im assuming the US Mil's "payoff function" is concave. On avg, the unexpected harms them more than it helps..
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..basically modeled as a short position in an option (that loses value when volatility increases.)
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Replying to @AngloRemnant @Logo_Daedalus
But how is that diff from UKs and KUs? W/ concavity any deviation away from full certainty creates option value
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only in degree. U/K I interpret as textbook Frank Knight defintion of risk. K/U is uncertainty, but bounded.
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