Or they cared in almost exactly the same way that they cared last time.
FWIW, the prediction markets didn't care. #debates https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election …pic.twitter.com/Wdbz05TH9v
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I can’t believe they give Trump such a high chance to start with. I mean he’s got a chance for sure, but come on
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Wait they both lost a penny so who's up? Hill dawg? Pence
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The same markets that were wrong in 2016, on Brexit and on the UK labor massive loss. Betting markets reflect polling and conventional wisdom for the most part.
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Not in this case. If Predictit reflected polling/conventional wisdom Biden would be trading in 80s right now. I think the closest forecasting model I've seen had Biden at high 70s and that was a couple of weeks ago.
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Maybe? Just out of curiosity, I wonder how much it would cost, say, a foreign government (or a US billionaire, for that matter) to game the major presidential prediction markets? Not a whole lot, I'm guessing? Interesting little spike there in early October.
pic.twitter.com/KouX4cYyw3
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Maybe I don't understand PredictIt, but that site wouldn't let me put money on the presidential race saying the market was full. Do they still fluctuate? Fwiw, they did open a market for yes/no on the next VP being female, which somehow was offering a better price than the main.
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Yeah, this market is "full," for whatever reason. But you can find proxies. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/2721/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election …pic.twitter.com/QVbU2MwQtf
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No persuadable voters watching.
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