Conspiracy alert: if power goes out in TX today, the fossil-fuel propagandists are going to try to set wind up as the patsy.
Don't let them. 🧵
Conversation
This is what I'm talking about: ERCOT is blaming extreme temps and low wind for the problem.
ercot.com/news/release?i
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So let's go over the numbers. The numbers in this 🧵 come from ERCOT's Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) made prior to Summer 2022.
ercot.com/files/docs/202
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Let's first talk about "record high electric demand". The value they give for today's peak demand, 79.7 GW, is about 2 GW above demand in their "baseline" scenario of 77.3 GW.
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But it is below their "extreme" scenario where demand is 81.6 GW. So today's demand is well within what they expected for the summer.
In fact, my grad student and I estimate that today's demand is about a 1-in-4-year event.
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My student Jangho Lee and I have developed power forecasts that use climate models to incorporate the impact of climate change, as well as allow us to take a more statistical view of the future. Here is the probability distribution of JJA 2022 seasonal maximum power (SMP).
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Let's turn to their claim that low wind is responsible.
Their baseline assumption is that wind will produce 9.4 GW of summertime power at the time of peak demand. If, as ERCOT predicts, wind produces 2.6 GW, then wind is coming in 6.7 GW (28%) below baseline.
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Is that a lot? Not really — in fact, ERCOT has a scenario ("Low Wind Output") where wind is 6.5 GW below expected and in that scenario they claim to have plenty of reserves (this scenario has peak demand of 77.3 GW, but even adjusting for this they would claim sufficient power).
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So what's the problem? The problem is that they only expect 4.0 GW of thermal to be offline (see Typical planned and unplanned outages, thermal). FYI, thermal includes, gas, coal, and nuclear.
According to ERCOT, 12 GW of thermal ("dispatchable") is offline today.
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The closest scenario to what's happening today is ERCOT's "High Peak Load/Extreme Unplanned Outages/Extreme Low Wind Output" scenario. In that scenario, ERCOT acknowledges we won't have enough power.
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Summary: If the only thing going on were low wind, ERCOT would not have a problem keeping the lights on.
But we also have high thermal outages.
For whatever reason (you can speculate along with me), ERCOT seems to not want to point the finger at fossil fuels.
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What do we do about this? First, NO, we don't need more fossil fuels. They are a disaster for our society and are incredibly expensive.
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Fossil fuels are an economic disaster. twitter.com/TexasTribune/s…
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What we need is more solar energy on the grid. According to ERCOT, solar produces at 81% of capacity during summer peak hours. Right now, the TX grid is mainly wind, with much less installed solar power.
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We know that wind does not produce that much during the summer. But solar does produce during summer. You need both of these power sources to have a reliable grid.
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And because solar & wind are the cheapest energy sources, increasing solar would also reduce the price of energy for consumers.
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People can object to those studies, of course, but it's harder to argue with the market: in Texas, 90% of the planned additions to the grid are solar, wind, and batteries. This shows that it's the cheapest energy.
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We also need to reconsider connecting the ERCOT grid to the rest of the country. I don't know if excess power is available regionally, but if so that would also ameliorate any shortage today.
Of course, Rick Perry would rather have blackouts.
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To clarify the 12 GW number: I get that from the ERCOT press release: 80-GW installed capacity minus 68-GW available.
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correction: in this tweet 28% should be 100-28% = 72%. I wish Twitter had an edit button.
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Let's turn to their claim that low wind is responsible.
Their baseline assumption is that wind will produce 9.4 GW of summertime power at the time of peak demand. If, as ERCOT predicts, wind produces 2.6 GW, then wind is coming in 6.7 GW (28%) below baseline.
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12 GW of dispatchable power offline is confirmed
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Replying to @joshdr83 and @cohan_ds
subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews
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