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Important additional info by the expert, @RARohde:https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1429108539960745994?s=20 …
.@BjornLomborg asked about heat waves instead of just the raw number of hot days.
Here's the times series of occurrence heat waves warmer than the 95th percentile of heat waves for heat waves of 2-5 days (where the temperature of a heat wave is the minimum daily temperature).pic.twitter.com/cce8JhwcOu
Here's the occurrence heat waves warmer than the 95th percentile, where the temperature of a heat wave is the average temperature. For the last two tweets, the y-axis is the sum of days over all grid boxes over the (approx.) continental US.pic.twitter.com/vxHuxZNjvM
It's clear that Lomborg's defense will be "I was just using a plot off the EPA website." But there are lots of plots on that page and he picked the *one* that presented the message he likes.https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1429122271009021954?s=20 …
That's a weak response. If you know anything about climate then you know the plot looks off and you owe your audience a minimal amount of due diligence before tweeting it out.
just for completeness: here are the multi-day heat waves for the entire NH mid-lats. This plot uses the minimum Tmax during a time span as the temp of the heat wave. Plotted here is the occurrence of heat waves > 95th percentile.pic.twitter.com/AbhFwFqfgp
This plot uses the average temperature of the time span as the temp of the heat wave. Again, plotting time series of occurrence of heat waves > 95th percentile. Y axis is grid cells times days.pic.twitter.com/6Oo3vVJPN8
What does 'warmer than the 95th percentile' tell you?
You're making up your own heatwave measure of *minimum* temps
EPA and US Fourth National Climate Assessment *both* insist heatwaves or warm spells — of course — are max of max, and peaked in 1930s
Using EPA and CSSR
Dessler-index of min temps, 
pick
https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/ pic.twitter.com/I2LST9wBXW
Sorry, it's hard to explain methodology in 280 characters. For every x-day period (x=2-5 days) I took the lowest Tmax during that period as the temperature of the heat wave. I also took the average Tmax as the temperature of the heat wave. Then I took ...
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