Huge (and worrying) news out of Germany: talks to build a coalition between Christian Democrats, Greens and Liberals just failed! 1/n http://spon.de/ae6Wk
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The reason: “Liberals”—really, a pro-business party with very mixed views on social issues —refused to enter the coalition because they weren’t willing to allow refugees with officially recognized status to bring their spouses + children to the country. 2/
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This shows the toxicity of immigration debates and the pull of populist positions: Lindner, the leader of the Liberals, is clearly trying to position himself to the right of Angela Merkel. Hoping to win big in the case of new elections. 3/
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So is THAT what will happen now? Answer is unclear for now. There are basically three possibilities. 4/
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1) Social Democrats agree to continue a coalition with Merkel’s CDU. This is a pretty easy way out: the government worked just fine and the ideological differences are small. BUT: The SPD is already down to 20%. Another four years as junior partner would basically be suicide. 5/
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2) Merkel forms a minority government, either on her own or with the Liberals. She would probably be able to get the votes to stay on as Chancellor. But her position would be very weakened and the possibility of major reforms would vanish. Bad for Germany, EU, everyone. 6/
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3) Merkel calls new elections. But it’s perfectly possible that those would see the far-right AfD improve its already strong position—and make it even more difficult for other parties to form a government. 7/
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So this is what happens when populist parties rise in systems with proportional representation: * Their topics dominate * Ideologically coherent governments become impossible * Populist accusations (all major parties the same and/or dysfunctional) become more true by the year. 8/
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I'm not sure this is really *that* different in countries with non-proportional representation. Instead of having separate parties that you can avoid electing, entire parties get largely taken over. That's not to say the current situation isn't a shit show.
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Replying to @AndresFreundPol @Yascha_Mounk
Ya, I dont see that as much different from what we have in America now.
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