Also, there will be intense debate on the yield range, likely design, and whether or not the two-stage claims are true. That's good, but...
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Ankit Panda Retweeted
...shouldn't lose sight of the forest for the trees, as
@NarangVipin notes here. https://twitter.com/NarangVipin/status/904224592851558401 …Ankit Panda added,
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Their reentry vehicles are already surviving to altitudes sufficient for delivering air burst payloads. Their ICBMs fly. Do the math.
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They already flew over Japan with a missile designed to carry a "large-sized, heavy nuclear warhead." They'll do it again with an ICBM.
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For their deterrent, too, there may be reason to see this test as their likely "last" nuclear test.
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If their "dial-a-yield" claim from earlier is true (might not be), they'd have a one-size-fits-all design. Fizmat seems to not be a problem.
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They might keep going anyway, pursuing megaton payloads, but I suspect the Hwasong-14 + 100+ kt payload *should* convincingly deter the US.
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(And they're clearly not stopping with the Hwasong-14 design: solid fuel ICBMs will come, given their survivability pressures.)
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Sanctions won't stop this. War won't stop this w/ an acceptable level of risk to US/Japan/ROK. Diplomacy might not either. We'll muddle on.pic.twitter.com/6EgT74NYa1
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Silver lining to this thread? Maybe tonight's test vented and USAF WC-135s will pick up a cornucopia of radionuclide indicators. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Is there a realistic chance to learn about the level of miniaturization from such data?
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From my amateurish POV I can imagine detecting boosted vs staged etc, but package size seems harder.
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