I don't find @NateSilver538's numbers convincing. When you don't take NY into account, it looks somewhat different. And comparing individual days imo is a bad idea, too prone to sampling errors.
Averaging over the last 7 days gives quite different results:
2020-05-02 - 2020-05-08: 213k positives, 14.4k deaths 2020-04-25 - 2020-05-01: 232k positives, 14.6k deaths Without NY: 2020-05-02 - 2020-05-08: 187k positives, 11.7k deaths 2020-04-25 - 2020-05-01: 187k positives, 11.7k deathspic.twitter.com/lbbswhuwbn