Prediction: Any new American civil war will begin with a fight over the presidency. For example: 1. Claims of a stolen election 2. Impeachment or other removal followed by a refusal to leave office 3. A coup in response to an alleged over-use of presidential power
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Replying to @Noahpinion
How about American disintegration? Seems more likely to me than a shooty war. With notable exceptions, our would-be fascists are too old, and too soft.
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Replying to @danfarina
The U.S. Military will win any civil war. The only case in which the outcome would be uncertain would be if the military fractures.
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Replying to @Noahpinion
I tend to think indifference is more likely. Consider the disintegration of any of the other empires.
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I'm doubtful that those really are comparable datapoints - due to ~instantaneous communication and fast travel power projection these days just works differently than back then. And within the continental US you also don't have type of supply issues that still are difficult.
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