NEW: China is racing ahead of the United States on blockchain https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/china-is-racing-ahead-of-the-united-states-on-blockchain/2019/03/07/c1e7776a-4116-11e9-9361-301ffb5bd5e6_story.html?utm_term=.83cedbaca0cb … by me @PostOpinions
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Replying to @joshrogin @PostOpinions
GNAAA. Blockchains have no actual beneficial use case for them that hasn't been widely know for decades. It's just a vehicle for scams, criminal enterprises and marketing. Everything beyond that is just a Merkle tree.
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Possibly you are conflating blockchain and cryptocurrency?
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No. The non-cryptocurrency blockchain stuff is just pretty basic CS (i.e. the Merkle trees I mentioned). There's simply no compelling case for it being an enabling technology for "web 3.0" outside of what's already been used long before the blockchain/cryptocurrency craze.
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So what’s the falsifiable prediction that you are making?
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Cryptocurrencies aren't going to be successful beyond niche markets (more niche than now). Smart contracts are going to fail further. Startups in the blockchain market are either failing or going to pivot / only use blockchain as market terminology.
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A lot of that is already playing out, so it's not really a prediction. Inversely, what's the falsifiable case for blockchains being hugely relevant in a success-of-the-systems kinda scale?
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Blockchain-related ETF within five years. Token payment system by Facebook or other social media company with 50 million or more users with five years. Sovereign token by a country of 20 million or more people within ten years (I’m not convinced Venezuela’s petro coin counts).
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What market cap for such an ETF, and what country? How do you precisely define token here? If it's essentially just a pseudo currency that's not issued by a state, it's been here (both digitally and pre-digitally) for a while. Aren't these well short of success-of-system scale?
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“Aren't these well short of success-of-system scale?” Fair point. These are things that will definitely happen in my view.
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These seem possible, although not that likely, but they don't seem to signal much success. There's more than a thousand US ETFs and most of them are close to irrelevant, scale wise. Some small-ish country doing an experiment doesn't signal success either, without volume.
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