NEW: China is racing ahead of the United States on blockchain https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/china-is-racing-ahead-of-the-united-states-on-blockchain/2019/03/07/c1e7776a-4116-11e9-9361-301ffb5bd5e6_story.html?utm_term=.83cedbaca0cb … by me @PostOpinions
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Replying to @joshrogin @PostOpinions
GNAAA. Blockchains have no actual beneficial use case for them that hasn't been widely know for decades. It's just a vehicle for scams, criminal enterprises and marketing. Everything beyond that is just a Merkle tree.
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Possibly you are conflating blockchain and cryptocurrency?
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No. The non-cryptocurrency blockchain stuff is just pretty basic CS (i.e. the Merkle trees I mentioned). There's simply no compelling case for it being an enabling technology for "web 3.0" outside of what's already been used long before the blockchain/cryptocurrency craze.
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So what’s the falsifiable prediction that you are making?
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Cryptocurrencies aren't going to be successful beyond niche markets (more niche than now). Smart contracts are going to fail further. Startups in the blockchain market are either failing or going to pivot / only use blockchain as market terminology.
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Those are qualitative terms. What is the falsifiable claim?
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Well, the pro blockchain side defines so many things as being related to blockchains that it's actually hard to come up with quantitative counter arguments that aren't going to be too narrow if blockchain actually succeeds.
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One that I'm fairly certain about, and which I think is a sizable fraction of the blockchain selling point: No transaction processor (using a liberal definition of the term) operating at scale (say ~square) that puts payments on an actual blockchain.
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