NEW: China is racing ahead of the United States on blockchain https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/china-is-racing-ahead-of-the-united-states-on-blockchain/2019/03/07/c1e7776a-4116-11e9-9361-301ffb5bd5e6_story.html?utm_term=.83cedbaca0cb … by me @PostOpinions
Cryptocurrencies aren't going to be successful beyond niche markets (more niche than now). Smart contracts are going to fail further. Startups in the blockchain market are either failing or going to pivot / only use blockchain as market terminology.
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A lot of that is already playing out, so it's not really a prediction. Inversely, what's the falsifiable case for blockchains being hugely relevant in a success-of-the-systems kinda scale?
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Blockchain-related ETF within five years. Token payment system by Facebook or other social media company with 50 million or more users with five years. Sovereign token by a country of 20 million or more people within ten years (I’m not convinced Venezuela’s petro coin counts).
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Those are qualitative terms. What is the falsifiable claim?
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Well, the pro blockchain side defines so many things as being related to blockchains that it's actually hard to come up with quantitative counter arguments that aren't going to be too narrow if blockchain actually succeeds.
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