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  1. Fed need to move with great care. Nominal GDP at stall speed. GDI flat. Liquidity tight. 2017 Recession risk rising

  2. Dynamics in Gilts market changed over last 5 trading sessions. No longer just FX inflation effect. Raises pressure

  3. Sterling fall in itself is benign but slightly ominous new dynamics in the Gilts market raises pressure a notch

  4. Try again, right millennium. US Treasury FX report: China spent $570bn in foreign reserves from Aug 2015 to Aug 2016 to stop yuan slide

  5. Terrific report by separating fact from fiction on EU, City, and passporting

  6. Fine dissection of sterling sell-off by Chatter about pound/Gilts crisis mostly-informed noise (so far)

  7. Otmar Issing loses all confidence in viability of euro project, thinks ECB itself in trouble (ditto BoE, Fed, BoJ)

  8. As you can see, 2007-2008 devalue cut CA deficit in half over four years, but blunted by EMU crisis, then squandered, h/t

  9. Since there is debate on whether lower £ helped CA deficit in 1967, 1992, 2007, this from Centre for Progressive Capitalism

  10. S&P caution Britain on dangerous course. My piece last night (reporting them obviously, not expressing my view)

  11. Most kind, Yanis. A gut-wrenching episode.

  12. Whoops, Forgot to add that RBC disputes claim that UK faces start of funding crisis. I totally agree. Gilt yields creeping up on reflation

  13. Variant of this chart doing the rounds in the City. RBC expects an orderly decline to $1.15. I think talk of Gilts strike is jejune

  14. RBC on £ this morning. "For two weeks, gilts and GBP selling off together. Highly unusual. Some see start of deeper funding crisis in the UK

  15. Before vote, I said Brexit means blood, toil, sweat, tears. This test to come. Didn't mean benign 14% fall in pound

  16. Hurrah for Izabella, and for Ashoka of course

  17. Are you conflating a currency slide with a Balance of Payments crisis?

  18. Without labouring point, a weaker sterling is shift in Wicksellian natural rate that ECB, BoJ, Fed dream of. Gets off deflationary tramline

  19. Whole point of Brexit to restore supremacy of Parliament, so it should vote. Sterling fall good, Wicksellian shift

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