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Holy cow. Buying on the eve of Lehman’s collapse, and holding until now, you’d have gotten an *11% annual return, overall.* The deepest crisis since the Great Depression. Reverts to 11% return per year. Over just 10 years.https://twitter.com/michaelsantoli/status/1039132291266695168 …
This is seriously blowing my mind. Provided you had the resources to weather the storm, you could have just ignored the whole drama and went on with your life, and be right back on track to get amazing returns just a couple of years later.
Yes, though important to recognize this is largely because the market was already down 20% from its high by September 2008, and at a level it had first reached 10 years earlier (in 1998). Total return from Oct. 2007 peak: +8%/year Total return from March 2000 peak: +5.6%/year
Worked if you weren’t in or near retirement and didn’t need to live off your portfolio. Many weren’t so lucky. Also, Most didn’t have the stomach. Asset allocation worked. Hasn’t been as successful in the last 5 Years but I’m guessing it will again.
The piece details how a 60/40 portfolio performed "as promised," as well.
Those were incredible times.
On the other hand. If you bought Bear Stearns on the eve of the collapse...
True, but then the CAPE was 20, now it's 33. Also, some of those good returns were due to the opportunity to re-invest dividends at very low valuations in 2009-2012 period. So don't expect those types of returns going forward.
If you bought lehman bonds in the single digits you made a 5x return (I did)
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