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.@IHME_UW new projections of #COVID19 cumulative deaths in the US by April 1 have been reduced to 502,000. This welcomed decline is due to 2 factors. 1/8https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend …
In this week’s update, the impact of vaccination is greater due to information in the Pfizer FDA filing, which shows approximately 50% protection after the first dose, and data on a larger number of doses available sooner in the US. 2/8
The epidemic in the US appears to have leveled off in many Midwestern states while continuing to increase on the West Coast and in parts of the Northeast. 3/8
The leveling off in the Midwest is apparent in hospitalization data and case notifications but could be related to continuing data challenges after the Thanksgiving holiday. 4/8
Reduced mobility and more careful behaviors, along with selected mandates, may have been enough to bring effective R under 1 in some states. Effective R is still greater than 1 in 15 states. 5/8pic.twitter.com/MKIt3zfEtA
As of December 7, we estimated that 73% of people always wore a mask when leaving their home. Mask use was lower than 50% in Wyoming. We all can do much better. 6/8pic.twitter.com/8GfR9zrtav
If universal mask coverage (95%) were attained in the next week, our model projects 56,000 fewer cumulative deaths compared to the reference scenario on April 1, 2021. 7/8pic.twitter.com/Mcf1Ue4BKZ
42 states will have high or extreme stress on hospital beds at some point in December through February and 48 will have high or extreme stress on ICU capacity. 8/8
Hola, here is your unroll: @AliHMokdad: .@IHME_UW new projections of #COVID19 cumulative deaths in the US by April 1 have been reduced to 502,000.… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1337187019538108423.html … Talk to you soon. 
Projections have been REDUCED to 502K. I had to read that slowly, taking deep breaths to let it soak in. An almost unfathomable sign of our collective incompetence.
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