"But isn't it awfully convenient that Joe Biden outperformed in the specific places that gave him his victory?" Um, no. That's. I mean. How else would it work?
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Donald Trump's strategy in 2016 focused in ways both conventional and not on key districts in swing states that gave him his narrow path to an electoral victory. That's how you win elections with the electoral college.
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The voting patterns in 2020 don't look like any previous year's, in a lot of ways. Go figure. It's a pandemic and also we have a massively polarizing incumbent who failed to win the popular vote the first time and never achieved majority approval during his time in office.
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If I were to list all the factors that drove Democratic turnout in those key swing states, among them would be the threatening and corrupt behavior of Donald Trump himself. He announced his plans and people mobilized to stop him.
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"A statistically unusual number of people voted against him and then voted for down-ballot Republicans! How do you explain that?" I would ask those down-ballot Republicans what they make of it. To me, it seems to suggest they're better off without him, maybe?
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Yeah, their "proof" is basically problems all the way down.https://twitter.com/PETEKEELEY/status/1332400453280100353 …
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But yeah, he did overperform in cities that ultimately gave him nothing because their state went red. It's not *just* the states that he won. Those are the ones that stand out to the right-wing conspiracy theorists because his performance there had an impact.
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They're looking at the end results and trying to rationalize a set of illegitimate circumstances that would have created them, so they can discount the results.
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I wonder if this algorithm has been applied to 2016?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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My favorite style of proof is ones of the form "unusual statistical things happened"... yes, under circumstances that are, in themselves, highly unusual.
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But also, there are real limits to how statistically unusual things can even be. How many data points is it even possible to have? We're talking infrequent presidential elections, and only ones in the last few decades are even pertinent.
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