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AlexandraErin's profile
Alexandra Erin
Alexandra Erin
Alexandra Erin
@AlexandraErin

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Alexandra Erin

@AlexandraErin

Alfie Award-Winning Author/Commentator She/Her Nonfiction: http://alexandraerin.substack.com  Fiction: http://patreon.com/alexandraerin  Query: blueauthor@alexandraerin.com

Hagerstown
patreon.com/AlexandraErin
Joined February 2007

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    Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

    The thing about evaluating danger is that there are at least two axes to consider: the axis of probability and the axis of magnitude. A thing that has little impact and little probability? Not worth worrying about much.

    9:25 PM - 9 Nov 2020
    • 116 Retweets
    • 548 Likes
    • Bartman Amy Junker REXX3D chelicerae Debra Kay bob bob bob Nick Green Adam Rumage Sad Sue
    10 replies 116 retweets 548 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        There are lawyers and legal scholars on here whose opinion I value arguing that the concern over Trump's coup is overblown or even "mass hysteria" because they can't see any mechanism by which it succeeds.

        1 reply 16 retweets 237 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        I feel like this is in part a failure of imagination on their parts, fueled by institutionalism and a lawyer's eye view of the situation. Trump's "legal strategy" so far has been neither particularly legal nor strategic so I get where they're coming from, even as I disagree.

        3 replies 16 retweets 385 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        So in deference to their expertise I will agree. I think, as things stand right now, that is a low-percentage scenario that Trump is successful; the odds of him winning specifically through the courts is close to, if not, nil.

        1 reply 16 retweets 253 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        Buuut that doesn't mean the danger is worth ignoring. If you fire a bullet into the air, the odds that this bullet will return to the earth with approximately the same energy with which it was discharged is 100%. The odds that it will strike a person are considerably lower.

        3 replies 14 retweets 289 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        But the consequences of that low-percentage scenario, where the falling bullet strikes someone, are about the same as if you had pointed the gun at them and pulled the trigger. They still get hit by a bullet! Low probability, high impact. Not worth the risk.

        2 replies 12 retweets 263 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        Even if we can't imagine a route by which Trump succeeds... and I can, in loose terms, imagine a few... the consequences of his success would be horrific. Catastrophic. Everything that a legitimate second term would bring and more, and worse.

        2 replies 29 retweets 309 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        So I will not tell you not to worry about Trump's attempted coup unfolding before us, because it's worth worrying about. I will ask you not to despair over it. I said before that acting as though Biden has won (he has!) and Trump is a loser (he is!) helps counter it.

        2 replies 116 retweets 576 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        In part this is about what narratives take hold in the media (social and otherwise) and popular consciousness. The right's narrative is very strong: "stop the steal!" and "socialism!" and "something something laptop." Okay, maybe they aren't all winners.

        2 replies 14 retweets 249 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        Biden is, I think, doing the exactly right thing by proceeding with his transitional plans even in the absence of GSA declaration and federal support. Before he made his victory speech, I said he was acting presidential without waiting for permission.

        4 replies 36 retweets 391 likes
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      11. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        The more he acts like a president in clear contrast to Donald Trump, the harder Trump is going to have making his big moves, if he sees the opportunity for them. The more, eventually, GOP in office will want to work with him.

        3 replies 31 retweets 324 likes
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      12. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        I think Trump's clearest route to "victory" here is to make so much trouble and cause so much chaos and threaten so much destruction that everybody with political power decides to simply go along with him. I don't think Joe Biden will do that.

        5 replies 23 retweets 298 likes
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      13. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        And I think Joe Biden acting presidential, showing leadership, laying out his plans and making connections and getting ducks in a row... I think that will dissuade others from going along past the point of no return.

        2 replies 24 retweets 309 likes
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      14. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        Alexandra Erin Retweeted Jody Wallace

        In the same general category of "low probability, high impact". States are already rebuking it; current understanding of the law seems to run that it wouldn't even work.https://twitter.com/jodywallace/status/1326036474144432128 …

        Alexandra Erin added,

        Jody Wallace @jodywallace
        Replying to @AlexandraErin
        What do you think about the faithless electors possibility?
        2 replies 12 retweets 223 likes
        Show this thread
      15. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        To make a long story short (TOO LATE!) - this isn't over until it's over, and it's never been over until it's over. There is nothing inevitable about Trump's victory, though. I mean, among other things, a wave of covid is still ravaging the major players on his side?

        2 replies 14 retweets 249 likes
        Show this thread
      16. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        I mentioned last week that Bill Barr seemed to be keeping deliberately above the fray, not getting roped into what people quickly dubbed the "clown show" of Trump's lawyers, with the suggestion that he would wait to get the lay of the land before he made his move.

        2 replies 11 retweets 167 likes
        Show this thread
      17. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        Barr's opening moves... in my very unofficial position as a layperson... read to me like a fishing expedition, done as much to give him cover from Trump as it is with any deliberate intent at producing particular results.

        1 reply 14 retweets 189 likes
        Show this thread
      18. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        This may change! It is *vanishingly* unlikely he will identify any actual legal case that would change the results of the election, but that's not the same as saying he won't find something he can work with, or that Trump could, working extralegal angles.

        1 reply 10 retweets 169 likes
        Show this thread
      19. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        "But why would an official resign in protest if Barr's just spinning his wheels?" Perhaps because of the intent, much more than the likely impact.

        5 replies 12 retweets 185 likes
        Show this thread
      20. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        All of these things are likely to be true: 1. Trump wants to use the circus to get money to pay down his debts. 2. Some Republicans are humoring him with an eye towards the GA runoffs. 3. His own staff is mostly trying to placate him. 4. They could still pull it off anyway.

        2 replies 54 retweets 276 likes
        Show this thread
      21. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        4. might seem at odds with the other three, but back in 2016 before our election I said that the number one lesson we should take away from politics of the year was "You Brexit, you bought it." Sometimes it doesn't matter what your gameplan was. Sometimes the dog catches the car.

        1 reply 21 retweets 227 likes
        Show this thread
      22. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        Alexandra Erin Retweeted

        Oh, yeah, the Murdoch Empire is definitely trying to beam "Marvin K. Mooney, Will You Please Go Now?" into his brain. The GOP electeds still see their fate as tied to him because they need those last two senate seats, though. https://twitter.com/erinbiba/status/1326039276044349441 …

        Alexandra Erin added,

        This Tweet is unavailable.
        5 replies 11 retweets 192 likes
        Show this thread
      23. Alexandra Erin‏ @AlexandraErin 9 Nov 2020

        Anyway, that's where things stand now. I'm still feeling pretty good. Cautiously optimistic, resigned to it taking longer than it should for the dust to settle. I won't tell you how to feel, but I'm not panicking.

        9 replies 14 retweets 265 likes
        Show this thread
      24. End of conversation

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