going on ad buys and public polls alone, hard to make sense of House map right now. you might say thing were tilting more in the GOP's direction (and some Rs are adamant it has), but then they have to rush back into #oh01, which a few weeks ago seemed as if it had slipped off maphttps://twitter.com/Ad_Analytics/status/1054794292877844481 …
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a lot of the races that seemed like they'd be close 6-12 months ago still are, but the map seems to be getting bigger at the same time
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Yes. The interesting thing is that the odds of picking up the House are getting better for Dems in large part because the map gets bigger and bigger, but it’s also late October and they haven’t exactly broken through yet, in terms of actually clearly leading in enough races.
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Not being snarky, is that actually interesting? I don’t recall in prior midterms whether conclusions seemed more foregone in October. I’ve read several claims the “tightening” claim is constant
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And it would seem likely that a plausible paths for the underdog party must have therefore existed in past races also
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i do feel there's a wider range of possibilities for November, between Dems falling short in the House and Dems romping to ~40 seats. Helps that unlike past elections, both chambers are (sort of) seen in play. but ... you're also not wrong. Some Dems in 2014 were ...
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... still holding out hope that they could hold their Senate majority. The range there was still pretty damn wide, obviously, given what happened
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True, I’m just thinking that Democrats are leading the generic ballot by 8+ points and yet there aren’t 25 seats where you’d give Democrats the clear edge, but also like 45+ where it wouldn’t shock you if they won it on E-Day.
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On October 21, 2010, Crystal Ball had 30 lean R or Likely R seats (that had been D Seat) and the Rs needed 37 for a majority. That required 7 toss ups. Today it has 20 lean D or better (that had been R) and the Ds need 5. http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2010102001/ …
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