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Alex_Roarty's profile
Alex Roarty
Alex Roarty
Alex Roarty
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@Alex_Roarty

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Alex RoartyVerified account

@Alex_Roarty

Covering Democrats for @mcclatchydc. Contrary to popular belief, not from Pennsylvania. @cumberlink alum. Co-host of @dcbubblepod!

Washington, DC
mcclatchydc.com
Joined March 2009

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    1. Alex Roarty‏Verified account @Alex_Roarty Oct 23

      Alex Roarty Retweeted Advertising Analytics

      going on ad buys and public polls alone, hard to make sense of House map right now. you might say thing were tilting more in the GOP's direction (and some Rs are adamant it has), but then they have to rush back into #oh01, which a few weeks ago seemed as if it had slipped off maphttps://twitter.com/Ad_Analytics/status/1054794292877844481 …

      Alex Roarty added,

      Advertising Analytics @Ad_Analytics
      House Majority PAC just entered #OH01 with an initial buy of $253k in Cincinnati. #OH2018
      4 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Alex Roarty‏Verified account @Alex_Roarty Oct 23

      anyway it seems like the House map is expanding in some places and contracting in others and boy I'm sure you all are glad I shared that bit of searing insight , right?

      5 replies 0 retweets 30 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Dave Weigel‏Verified account @daveweigel Oct 23
      Replying to @Alex_Roarty

      It’s gonna come down to turnout.

      1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
      Alex Roarty‏Verified account @Alex_Roarty Oct 23
      Replying to @daveweigel

      I was building to that point

      1:11 PM - 23 Oct 2018
      • 4 Likes
      • Cindy 🦃🍁🍂🍃 Krishan Patel Justin Myers Emily C. Singer
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Kyle Kondik‏Verified account @kkondik Oct 23
          Replying to @Alex_Roarty @daveweigel

          a lot of the races that seemed like they'd be close 6-12 months ago still are, but the map seems to be getting bigger at the same time

          2 replies 4 retweets 19 likes
        3. Bryan Rice‏ @bricey16 Oct 23
          Replying to @kkondik @Alex_Roarty @daveweigel

          Yes. The interesting thing is that the odds of picking up the House are getting better for Dems in large part because the map gets bigger and bigger, but it’s also late October and they haven’t exactly broken through yet, in terms of actually clearly leading in enough races.

          3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. bctu‏ @bctu1 Oct 23
          Replying to @bricey16 @kkondik and

          Not being snarky, is that actually interesting? I don’t recall in prior midterms whether conclusions seemed more foregone in October. I’ve read several claims the “tightening” claim is constant

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        5. bctu‏ @bctu1 Oct 23
          Replying to @bctu1 @bricey16 and

          And it would seem likely that a plausible paths for the underdog party must have therefore existed in past races also

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Alex Roarty‏Verified account @Alex_Roarty Oct 23
          Replying to @bctu1 @bricey16 and

          i do feel there's a wider range of possibilities for November, between Dems falling short in the House and Dems romping to ~40 seats. Helps that unlike past elections, both chambers are (sort of) seen in play. but ... you're also not wrong. Some Dems in 2014 were ...

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        7. Alex Roarty‏Verified account @Alex_Roarty Oct 23
          Replying to @Alex_Roarty @bctu1 and

          ... still holding out hope that they could hold their Senate majority. The range there was still pretty damn wide, obviously, given what happened

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. Bryan Rice‏ @bricey16 Oct 23
          Replying to @Alex_Roarty @bctu1 and

          True, I’m just thinking that Democrats are leading the generic ballot by 8+ points and yet there aren’t 25 seats where you’d give Democrats the clear edge, but also like 45+ where it wouldn’t shock you if they won it on E-Day.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        9. bctu‏ @bctu1 Oct 23
          Replying to @bricey16 @Alex_Roarty and

          On October 21, 2010, Crystal Ball had 30 lean R or Likely R seats (that had been D Seat) and the Rs needed 37 for a majority. That required 7 toss ups. Today it has 20 lean D or better (that had been R) and the Ds need 5. http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2010102001/ …

          3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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