This is my first week covering race and politics for ! Please say hi, or send tips, polls, contacts, press releases and story ideas to alex.l.samuels@abc.com.
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Alexandra Samuels
@AlexSamuelsx5
Reporter . Writing on the intersection of race and politics. Bostonian. Ideas, tips: alex.l.samuels@abc.com
Alexandra Samuels’s Tweets
It has long been foretold, but we might finally get the multi-million-dollar, knock-down-drag-out open California primary of our dreams/nightmares. #CAsen
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NEW: @AdamSchiff makes it official. He's running for Senate in 2024 in what is shaping up to be a marquee CA battle. My story: latimes.com/politics/story
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Join us for a free in-person event, Campaign for the Texas Legislature: The Women Leading the Way. This will be a discussion between Jamie McWright and Monica Gomez Taylor. will be moderating. You can RSVP here: bit.ly/3Zsc3Jr
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ATX friends! 😎 I’ll be speaking at on Jan. 25 at 12 p.m. CT with two women who are leading their political party's campaign for the Texas Legislature. Join us! #txlege #tx2024
RSVP: bit.ly/3Zsc3Jr
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Rep. Hakeem Jeffries is the first Black politician to lead any major party in Congress. A look at what his leadership could mean for Democrats:
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if you're in line for the speakership, stay in line
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The kind of reader feedback you get as a Black politics reporter pt. 73826
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Twitter users might not *love* , but Americans generally still have a somewhat favorable opinion of him.
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If you really like and enjoy your parents and want to be around them as an adult, what did they do when you were a kid/what do they do now to make that the case?
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A really good column by Alex which hopefully will continue in some iteration in 2023!
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It was only fitting to close @FiveThirtyEight’s Voices of Color column by asking voters how they’re processing both the 2022 elections and the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
(Spoiler: One Democrat told me they want Rahm Emmanuel to run.) fivethirtyeight.com/features/these
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I created this column because I wanted to speak with POC. Too often, political writing focuses on the preferences of white people with euphemisms like “suburban women” or “middle class.”
So I hope VOC was useful and/or a good read! This will be the final entry in the series. 💔
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It was only fitting to close @FiveThirtyEight’s Voices of Color column by asking voters how they’re processing both the 2022 elections and the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
(Spoiler: One Democrat told me they want Rahm Emmanuel to run.) fivethirtyeight.com/features/these
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It was only fitting to close ’s Voices of Color column by asking voters how they’re processing both the 2022 elections and the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
(Spoiler: One Democrat told me they want Rahm Emmanuel to run.)
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OK, the first and second picks in ’s second 2024 Republican presidential primary draft might not surprise you... But ’s third pick might. 👀 fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump
(Pls make fun of us later if/when the nominee is someone we weren’t even considering!)
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Trump's favorability rating (37.7%) is at its lowest point in our average since he left office.
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NEWS: Sen. Sinema is switching her party affiliation from Dem to independent, she says in interview. “I don't anticipate that anything will change about the Senate structure,” she adds
She’s not talking about whether she’s running for re-election in 2024
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.'s dispatch from Georgia is both the definitive take on the runoff and the best summary of where the state sits politically. Hint: It's complicated.
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You're going to see a lot of takes about how Georgia is a purple state now. And that's probably true...but it's also still a red state. Read this smart story from about what Warnock's victory really means for GA's future.
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Political prognosticators have spent *a lot* of time assessing what Georgia’s runoff result means for the state’s hue. But picking a state’s political color can obscure the individual races that define it. My dispatch from ATL for :
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With 99% of the expected vote reporting, Warnock leads Walker 51% to 49%. Our reporter made it to Warnock's election night party just as many news outlets announced his projected win: 53eig.ht/3F5fcWh
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The NYT estimates there are ~541,000 ballots left to count in Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties—all of which are Warnock+30 or bluer right now. #GAsen
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With 74% of the expected vote reporting, Warnock and Walker are essentially neck and neck. Our reporter is in Georgia at Walker's election night watch party: 53eig.ht/3BfyMOa
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Walker is underperforming in some small, rural counties so far -- obv a good sign for Warnock. We won't really have a clear look until more metro ATL votes come in -- particularly the Democratic stronghold of DeKalb, Warnock's best path to victory. #gapol
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A good result for Warnock (D) in Ben Hill Co.: Walker (R) carried it by 28.9% in November, wins it by just 27.5% today. #GASEN
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Our reporter is reporting live from Herschel Walker's election night event at the College Football Hall of Fame in Atlanta. #GArunoff 53eig.ht/3Hpg0I2
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The case for Walker and the case for Warnock --> 53eig.ht/3FuFz9u
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. is live blogging tonight’s runoff election in Georgia. Follow along!: fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/geor #GASenateRunoff
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Were Democratic wins in Georgia in 2020 and 2021 outliers, or is the state getting more competitive for statewide candidates? The results of the Senate runoff election will tell us more. #GAsen 53eig.ht/3OSFNu9
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Before 2020, Republicans typically dominated Georgia’s statewide runoffs. But we’d be silly to write off either candidate in this year’s race. For , I make the case for a Warnock victory *and* a Walker victory in the #GASenRunoff:
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🔖 FiveThirtyEight now has a page specifically for #GAsen runoff polls: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2
A polling average chart will appear if/when we get at least 5 total polls from at least 3 different pollsters.
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What can the 2022 midterms tell us about 2024? The latest chat from ’s political team:
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Breaking News: Nancy Pelosi, the face of House Democrats for two decades and first woman speaker, will step down from party leadership. nyti.ms/3TJ60Mj
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🚨2022 GA Turnout by race/ethnicity🚨
(as share of citizen voting-age pop)
Total: 51.2% (2018: 52.7%)⬇️
White: 58.4% (2018: 58.0%)⬆️
Black: 43.2% (2018: 47.8%)⬇️
Hispanic: 25.1% (2018: 27.6%)⬇️
Asian/PI: 37.4% (2018: 34.9%)⬆️
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It's official: Trump files FEC paperwork to seek the presidency in 2024.
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When the new Congress comes into session in January, there will be more Black Republicans serving together on Capitol Hill than at any point since 1877 — but that’s not saying much. Are efforts to recruit and elect more Black candidates paying off?
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A lesson from studying politics: just because “regular” folks don’t communicate about issues in the same way elites/experts do, doesn’t mean these considerations aren’t in mind. My hunch is people care much more about democratic stability than we give them credit for.
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*DEMOCRATS KEEP CONTROL OF THE US SENATE
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Here's an interesting tidbit:
If CCM, Kelly, and Warnock all hold on, it will be the first time in history that every single incumbent senator running for another term won their primary and their general election.
In 1914, none lost a general, but two lost renomination.
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Upset alert: Yadira Caraveo (D) is the projected winner in #CO08. She had only a 9% chance in our final forecast, making this the biggest upset of 2022 so far.
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