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Disclosure of identities of 305 #GRU operatives, the largest intelligence blunder in modern Russian history is entirely of domestic making, and only all-penetrating corruption and state erosion are to blame. Here is how it works 
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When crosschecking identities of #GRU operatives disclosed by the Dutch authorities, @bellingcat and @the_ins_ru went through the register of Russian traffic police. One of the cars was registered at Komsomolsky Prospekt 20, one of #GRU barracks that hosts cyber unit 26165 2/
There are 305 individuals who have their cars registered using the same address, and the database contains their full names, DOB, ID data, cell phone numbers etc. 3/
How is that possible? First, the Russian Traffic Authority is notoriously corrupt even by Russian standards, it's inexhaustible source of dark Russian humor. No surprise its database is very easy to buy in the black market since 1990s. 4/
But why would #GRU super spy register his private car using address of his secretive employer? Well, this gives you bonuses - you are put on a special list so the traffic police can't stop, the fines for drunk driving etc. never apply to you, and you don't need to pay car tax 5/
Root cause of largest intelligence failure in modern Russian history is a combination of wrecked values system in parts of the Russian society deeply rooted in Soviet past, notorious incompetence and, well, banal corruption. END or FINISH as we say in Russia
As a kid in the 70s, I laughed at crazy old people who blamed Russia for everything (including weather manipulation). Now that’s me. They really are manipulating everything (except the weather, but I wouldn’t be surprised...).
I've no doubt incompetence and corruption are involved, however if Putin wanted a "clean" operation regarding Skripal for instance I'm sure he could have. The fact is he simply doesn't care. They can manufacture their own alt-truth, alt-reality however much evidence we have.
How do you know that Putin was involved prior to the guys getting caught? This could have been a rogue operation. Lots of corruption implies occasional rogue operations.
I don't, but if anyone in Russia caused Putin's regime significant harm or embarrassment I really don't think they'd be around very long, and there has been far too many of these operations to have happened without Putin's ok
Do we know that the Novichok poisonings were carried out by the same group as the Polonium poisonings? Maybe Putin (or Berezovsky) ordered the hit on Litvenenko, and the Novichok poisonings, which took place more than a decade later, were rogue.
Maybe we could theorise till the cows come home?
Sure. Neither of us have enough facts to do more than theorize.
We do have quite a lot of facts. You just need to read them. Saying no one has enough facts is essentially abandoning critical thinking out of an unwillingness to accept reality.
1. If you have additional facts that haven’t appeared in major media outlets, please let the rest of us know. 2. Admitting uncertainty isn’t abandoning critical reasoning, it’s honesty and humility.
OpSec. OpSec. OpSec. And the GRU is terrible at it.
Their opsec might be bad, problem is their tradecraft is pretty good.
Debatable.
Their cyber ops and humint capabilities are good. "Covert" assassinations...not so much.
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