1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID;
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2/ He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.
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3/ Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous.
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4/ Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within “two to three weeks” - last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary.
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5/ One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* - the UK only began ita lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work.
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6/ Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US - I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.
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Hi!, you can read it here: Thread by : 1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the authors who… threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243133. Talk to you soon. 🤖
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What does this have to do with hospitals being at 3x capacity and having people with underlying conditions around a disease known for killing people with underlying conditions I don’t understand how you talk yourself around that
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Team Apocalypse is just waking up dude. Rest assured that some people here thought that the media basing 95% of their scenarios on one source was noted.
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We have been screaming in the dark. The GroupThink with TA is just like the US Gov being 10000% sure that Iraq had WMDs in 2002/3. Anyone who questions gets squashed.
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What are these models worth if changes in inputs every few days give drastically different results? What will the models say tomorrow? #wittgensteinsruler
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Why should it warrant attention if we're not locking down as a country? Different underlying circumstances.
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Hello, the unroll you asked for: Thread by : 1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the authors who… threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243133. Enjoy :) 🤖