1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the @imperialcollege authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID;https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/ …
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'Well if I have it, and I'm a careful safe person, then that means everyone must have it.'
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This is what I think but I think you're grossly misrepresenting Neil Ferguson by suggesting that he thinks it's very widespread. He still thinks only small % of pop has contracted it and suppression via testing, contact tracing and quaranting is the way forward.
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Exactly what I was trying to say from the start.
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where in the links does it say this??
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I may be misreading here but I don't think this is what the article said at all.... Mixing up two different reports.
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@stevewoz thought he brought it to N.Cali 1/4/20. I think I had it 2/4/20 in S.Cali. This is GOOD news! Learning that something is not as bad as we thought is GOOD news!Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Your thread is attempting to explain the Imperial group's predictions. But this explanation for their prediction directly contradicts what Neil is quoted saying in the article. I feel like your take may be biased.
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His take is biased. He is conflating two different models (imperial/oxford) to disguise the reason for Ferguson’s revision - Ferguson incorporated the impact of social distancing and increased testing in his model.
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