1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID;
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2/ He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.
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3/ Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous.
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4/ Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within “two to three weeks” - last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary.
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5/ One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* - the UK only began ita lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work.
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6/ Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US - I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.
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Why are 50% of people getting tested if they have no symptoms?
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'Well if I have it, and I'm a careful safe person, then that means everyone must have it.'
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thought he brought it to N.Cali 1/4/20. I think I had it 2/4/20 in S.Cali.
This is GOOD news! Learning that something is not as bad as we thought is GOOD news!
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Your thread is attempting to explain the Imperial group's predictions. But this explanation for their prediction directly contradicts what Neil is quoted saying in the article.
I feel like your take may be biased.
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His take is biased. He is conflating two different models (imperial/oxford) to disguise the reason for Ferguson’s revision - Ferguson incorporated the impact of social distancing and increased testing in his model.
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