You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more
2/ He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.
3/ Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous.
'Well if I have it, and I'm a careful safe person, then that means everyone must have it.'
This is what I think but I think you're grossly misrepresenting Neil Ferguson by suggesting that he thinks it's very widespread. He still thinks only small % of pop has contracted it and suppression via testing, contact tracing and quaranting is the way forward.
Exactly what I was trying to say from the start.
where in the links does it say this??
I may be misreading here but I don't think this is what the article said at all.... Mixing up two different reports.
@stevewoz thought he brought it to N.Cali 1/4/20. I think I had it 2/4/20 in S.Cali.
This is GOOD news! Learning that something is not as bad as we thought is GOOD news!
Your thread is attempting to explain the Imperial group's predictions. But this explanation for their prediction directly contradicts what Neil is quoted saying in the article. I feel like your take may be biased.
His take is biased. He is conflating two different models (imperial/oxford) to disguise the reason for Ferguson’s revision - Ferguson incorporated the impact of social distancing and increased testing in his model.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
