1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID;
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2/ He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.
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3/ Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous.
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4/ Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within “two to three weeks” - last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary.
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5/ One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* - the UK only began ita lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work.
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6/ Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US - I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.
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Social distancing has only really been a thing for a short time. The effects of it have not really been shown yet. So the good news is that even with good numbers now, it's not really about social distancing.. which means things could get a lot better with it.
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Absolutely NOTHING in the article suggests that half of those that die from COVID19 would die anyway because of age and other illness. That’s purely your propaganda.
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... if they're of a certain age and health, actuaries can confirm or refute. Not that hard.
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