I'm sorry if I have difficulty interacting with you, I'm autistic, it takes a lot of work to pretend in my mind what it's like to be retarded in order to imagine what it's like being neurotypical so I can understand you.
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In general you can't go wrong just starting by imagining the dumbest possible motivation or line of reasoning, then the second and third dumbest, then using a heuristic estimate of intelligence to decide between the latter two.
The only reason the dumbest explanation is never true is because the dumbest reason is almost always no reason at all, and effects have causes.
