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I’d put the probability of a significant conventional war in SE Asia in the next decade at >50%. The Chinese muscle flexing has gotten both more aggressive and open in the last 5 years.https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/01/asia/malaysia-china-air-force-flight-intercept-intl-hnk/index.html …
It's just like Sid Meier's Civilization: wars are foreshadowed by the pointless amassing of armies near the border, even though they have to withdraw to base immediately after declaring war.
