guy who thinks the age people should be able to start transitioning is 14 and that another guy who thinks that age should be 16 is an absolute unironic nazi
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yeah that data would be really great to have. we don't seem to have any solid idea about how many later on regret, or what conditions regret is most correlated with. we know there *are* regret cases, but are they statistically significant in some sense we can detect?
Yudkowsky talks about Einstein and how he said "If my theory is wrong, I will be embarrassed for God". He says that in order to conceive of the theory in the first place to sufficient fidelity to articulate it, Einstein must have already had substantial evidence.
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I think the best test of whether a person is trans or not is the one we can no longer do due to information saturation: see how sensible a theory of transsexualism a person can articulate about themselves ex nihilo. If you can't even articulate your own gender, you aren't that.
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Hence literally all the trans trenders who mystify gender as "fluid" or some sort of phlogiston like substance that behaves however they want it to at any given time are probably not actually trans. Hell, they probably don't have an ontologically grounded gender at all.
End of conversation
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