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This would have to be done recursively somehow though because each question of expected value depends on frequency assessments of adverse behavior as well as subjective reports of impact. Prediction markets might work if wealth differences didn't exist.
You could weight money invested in a given prediction by percent of total utility, taking in mind the diminishing utility of money and other such things, and it would probably provide a good rough approximation. Better than pure prediction markets.
But yeah, some sort of weighted prediction market where people bet on which hypothesis would have the most social utility if corroborated. And it works recursively, by also allowing betting on each prior, and then collapsing once all priors are weighted. Anyone else have ideas?
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