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The best models come from starting with an explanation of the least common common occurrence in a body of occurrences and then working inwards. People who do the opposite are not really explaining anything, they're just betting on "house" in a gambling den.
But then I suppose the first condition of the former is the last condition of the latter, and thus it ultimately depends on your intuition for what the "least common common occurrence" is. I just think based on experience that the former is tied to stronger intuition I guess.
Poker is winnable but extremely tough these days to the point the average person has little to gain from trying to learn it. Blackjack is winnable with counting systems in a small number of contexts. Video poker is winnable with a sufficient bankroll. Everything else -EV p much.
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