The Legendary Dragon Alephwyr, named Alephwyr, BA

Is this a paradox or am I stupid? 1. The odds of a subsequence of events varying from expected frequencies of a larger sequence increases as the bigger sequence approaches infinity. 2. Induction assumes a persistent sequence 3. As lindy-ness increases, it becomes self-refuting

If you flip an infinite number of coins you will eventually get any arbitrary number of just heads in a row. The more coins you are able to flip, the more likely you are to be able to flip an infinite number of coins. Therefore the less likely your data is to conform to truth??

Yeah. Basically if we're part of infinite anything it's infinitely more likely that we're in a pocket of improbability than it would be if we were only part of finite anything. Probability seems to break down in some way with infinite sequences even as it invokes them.

something unlikely being more likely to happen at some point does not mean it is more likely to happen at the particular point we happen to be in

No, but the jump from finite to infinite makes the unlikely event jump from epsilon to infinitely likely. Or maybe this is some weird Bayesian vs Frequentist thing? I don't really understand probability, this is just my intuition.