For instance, when it turns out that all of the elites actually are child trafficking pedophiles, but otherwise seem bereft of talent, personability, decision making acumen, etc: much more likely you're in a sim run by those hostile to past elites than that pedophilia -> power
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Of course, you could also live in an original timeline that's being accidentally or intentionally overwritten by simulations from the future.
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We can't assess the probability of that instinctively though. Where bizarre sequences of events are inherently easy to discern from the inside: extreme statistical irregularities, apparently acausal phenomenon, unfalsifiable models as the only explanation for various interactions
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