most trans women don't start estrogen until our 20's or older, way past puberty. i would have developed *identically* to cis girls (apart from genitals) if i started injection hormones at my puberty. but society and family discourages and punishes transness, so we wait :/
That's not how probabilities work. They're a function of empirical reality, not your subjective uncertainty
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The uncertainties I refer to are empirical. Or rather, ultimately the lack of empirical evidence that transition is always the best thing for people.
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Fine. The problem is then: 1 The accuracy of diagnosis in the first instance 2 One of expected values eg, if the odds of being trans vs desisting is 50 50, and the harm of not allowing transition is even incrementally greater than the harm of allowing it, transition is indicated
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