I've come to realize that poker can't be played through math alone unless you're already rich enough to weather every storm of variance. Generalizing to upwards mobility, every true success story is a story of playing people, not odds. But social capital consolidates upwards too.
What we really need is for there to be a way for the poor to profit from other people's expectations of their failure. War and exploration used to afford opportunities along these lines, simply because being expendable made you a nuisance at home, so gambling with you made sense
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The death of credible higher education has destroyed what might have been another, limited solution in the modern world. What might work are institutions that are trustworthy enough that companies will enter into contractual arrangements to hire a certain number of graduates
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I wonder to what extent the bad driving out the good in terms of college graduates is a result of the bad driving out the good in currency: colleges are direct beneficiaries of state tax dollars, but only in proportion to number of students matriculated.
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The result is bad currency in proportion to bad students. But of course, strictly speaking, this makes educational institutions one of the primary "beneficiaries", at least short term, of the devaluation of currency.
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Fundamentally, other people's money is being used to support increasingly marginal educational outcomes. This would be ok if marginal outcomes had even marginal improvements in SES, but they don't. Whenever it appears otherwise, success was usually assured even with no degree
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The other problem, of course, is credentialism, usually of bureaucracies, which is a double laundering. But this doesn't seem like the main problem to me.
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It needs to be both harder to deny entry to talent upfront and easier and cheaper to fire talent after hiring. This encourages both the consistent value of the coin and the circulation of the coin, respectively.
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Companies don't hire because they don't want to train or pay other expenses, or in many cases simply can't. This leads to a situation where they only hire obvious, premium talent, and rely on internships, staffing agencies, and contractors for anything marginal.
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This has lead to the gig economy. It's essentially that point in a poker tournament where everyone's ICM considerations cause them to shut down entirely and only play AA-QQ and AKs. Only this is an economy. There's no happy ending here. Everyone eventually just bleeds to death.
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Either we end up in a cycle of eternal bailouts as everything becomes more and more worthless; currency, jobs, degrees; essentially giving the economy the structure of a poker tournament where everyone sits down with an unequal stack one minute before late registration ends... or
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Well, I dunno what. It really seems like the economy has become nationalized at the implicit barrel of a gun simply as a result of bad monetary policy and general government largess. The free market is an illusion now, just the sanction of the state, maintained via force monopoly
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End of conversation
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