I love the rationalists for a number of reasons but one is that they've developed a perfect shutdown for people crying that doom is imminent/"listen up sheeple we're all gonna die" which is: "okay! bet."
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Try reversing it. You'll hear whining about how the price of a bet isn't just the money put up but the money taken away from other ventures, etc etc.
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Heh, just make it cheap enough that the bet is only barely large enough to feel good to win and bad to lose. Tease them about the monetary value of social epistemics. Say "Bet!" again. Then it's mostly pride on the line! That pride is well-calibrated by this process.
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Only if you lose
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Lol my ex-wife pulled this one in the divorce
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