Now that I'm sane again I guess the first thing I should do is stop having opinions about things I'm unqualified to get to the bottom of, which is at minimum pretty much anything involving statistics or probability.
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Why? Doesn't stop the average economist.
Well, I could try to make an expected value calculation about the likelihood of my random speculations helping vs hurting, but I'd need to have a good intuitive sense of probability for that.
