Jay Albrecht

In the ECMWF, the temperature forecast between the surface and 5000 ft fall to about 12-15 deg F below normal. This time of year we average mid 30s at night and lower 50s during the day. The GFS is also cold with some runs quite snowy starting the same time. #wawxpic.twitter.com/k9zDhuVDbt

020320 PM Weather Update: I am not sure what to make of the long term models, but the weeklies from the ECMWF and the GFS operational solutions -starting about the 15th of Feb- are looking quite cold and possibly snowy. Look at the retrogression of a strong offshore ridge: #wawxpic.twitter.com/p5MXpk8RN3

4. Model uncertainty remains high concerning the strength, position, and movement of the offshore ridge and the amount of cold air it brings into W WA. The preferred European model is a bit milder than the US model. Wait and see with cool (not as cold) preferred. #wawxpic.twitter.com/2tCuDrEFQh

3. The upper flow will amplify with a strong ridge forming offshore starting this weekend. This will give welcome drying with cooler than normal temps. #wawxpic.twitter.com/6f3bWkI2CZ

2. Another wet system will move thu the area Wed thru Fri as a warm front moves across the area. Precip may begin as wet snow but will quickly change to rather heavy rain at times (mainly mtns) as we warm thru midweek. Looks like flooding on some rivers again! #wawxpic.twitter.com/5dMGnzUph4

020320 Update: Not a lot going on this morning. Radar early this morning shows some shower activity from E of Tacoma EWD into the Cascades. Sat Imagery shows isolated showers offshore. HRRR shows not much change today with isolated rain or wet snow showers. #wawxpic.twitter.com/jNEFjBLHEB

5. Cool temps continue thru Wed are followed by another mild period late week. Heavy precip again in the mountains late week may produce more flooding. But the lowlands will see significant rain shadow with W flow aloft. #wawxpic.twitter.com/KC5LqU5IBE

4. 24 hr running snowfall accumulations from the ECMWF ensembles for Everett are shown here. Mon morning accumulations of an inch or so will be brief and wet. A snow to rain event is possible with Wed warm front. #wawxpic.twitter.com/vF7XzZhxjP

3. Here is an hourly loop of 6 hr pcpn totals thru Wed morning. Notice the convergence zone Mon AM and the pcpn with the warm front moving in on Wed (with significant shadowing east of the Olympics. Caution: actual position of forecast features still uncertain! #wawxpic.twitter.com/WD6I02iL0G

2. Cold showers offshore will move inland later this aftn thru Mon. Snow levels are low, so brief wet accumulations, especially with convergence zone, possible Mon morning. Snow to rain possible Wed as a warm front now well offshore moves thru. #wawxpic.twitter.com/MgGHXEiYfD

020220 Update: Short-lived cool spell thru early Wed with showers and low snow levels. Mild/wet late this week. Cooler and drier in the longer term as high pres aloft develops offshore. Longer and significant cold snap and snow threat mid month up in the air. #wawxpic.twitter.com/KoM1tfTEEN