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Ahimsa_Satya_'s profile
Ahimsa
Ahimsa
Ahimsa
@Ahimsa_Satya_

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Ahimsa

@Ahimsa_Satya_

Exponential Growth Curve
Joined August 2017

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    1. Ari Paul‏Verified account @AriDavidPaul 22 Dec 2017

      6/ For options with strikes that are far from the current price, this idea is taken even further. Rather than just betting on volatility, it's likely a bet on skew or kurtosis, which reflect the shape of the future price distribution.

      3 replies 5 retweets 39 likes
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    2. Ari Paul‏Verified account @AriDavidPaul 22 Dec 2017

      7/ This sounds complicated, but in simplified plain language, it means that it's a bet that the if the asset rallies, it's likely to rally a lot.

      1 reply 7 retweets 36 likes
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    3. Ari Paul‏Verified account @AriDavidPaul 22 Dec 2017

      8/ For example, Microsoft calls have little kurtosis, because while we may think it's likely that Microsoft stock will go up 50% in a year, it's probably very, very unlikely that it goes up 150%, less than 1/3 as likely as the 50% rally.

      2 replies 4 retweets 23 likes
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    4. Ari Paul‏Verified account @AriDavidPaul 22 Dec 2017

      9/ But commodities often have a lot of kurtosis, meaning that a really big move to the upside is less unlikely than in stocks. This is true even if the commodity and stock have the same volatility.

      1 reply 5 retweets 24 likes
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    5. Ari Paul‏Verified account @AriDavidPaul 22 Dec 2017

      10/ a way to think about this: volatility is how the thing moves around its current price, skew and kurtosis are how the thing may move once it gets far from its current price.

      2 replies 9 retweets 31 likes
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    6. Ari Paul‏Verified account @AriDavidPaul 22 Dec 2017

      11/ So buying a $100,000 strike call is not necessarily a bet that Bitcoin will ever exceed $100,000. It's a bet that *if* Bitcoin rallies, it might rally by a whole lot.

      12 replies 33 retweets 96 likes
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    7. Ari Paul‏Verified account @AriDavidPaul 22 Dec 2017

      12/ I suggest that you *do not* trade options, unless you are very knowledgeable and experienced. You will likely either pay a bad price, misunderstand the mechanics, or take on more risk than you want by selling an option.

      6 replies 7 retweets 63 likes
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    8. Ari Paul‏Verified account @AriDavidPaul 22 Dec 2017

      13/ My explanation here contains a lot of gross oversimplifications, I know, so stand down options geeks.

      17 replies 5 retweets 104 likes
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    9. Ahimsa‏ @Ahimsa_Satya_ 22 Dec 2017
      Replying to @AriDavidPaul

      Sounds interesting. Any recommended books for an ECON grad?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Ataraxia Investments‏ @Ataraxia_Invest 22 Dec 2017
      Replying to @Ahimsa_Satya_ @AriDavidPaul

      "Dynamic Hedging" by @nntaleb.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Ahimsa‏ @Ahimsa_Satya_ 22 Dec 2017
      Replying to @Ataraxia_Invest @AriDavidPaul @nntaleb

      Have been looking at that one as well as “Options as a Strategic Investment”

      5:37 PM - 22 Dec 2017
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Ataraxia Investments‏ @Ataraxia_Invest 22 Dec 2017
          Replying to @Ahimsa_Satya_ @AriDavidPaul @nntaleb

          Admittedly shilling @nntaleb books, but highly recommend "Black Swan" and "Antifragile" as well. The mental models I've developed from his books have been highly profitable.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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