Bitcoin: my answer to the repeated questions. No, there is NO way to properly short the bitcoin "bubble". Any strategy that doesn't entail options is nonergodic (subjected to blowup). Just as one couldn't rule out 5K, then 10K, one can't rule out 100K. Gabish?
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Note that Bitcoin has a limited number of natural sellers. The entire concept is very concave supply (it costs more and more to extract). The number of producers shrinks with time.
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Replying to @paulportesi @nntaleb
The biggest point of Bitcoin is still held to Nassim's "Lindy effect". It's simply too early. It will most likely be replaced with another technology.
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Replying to @paulportesi @nntaleb
Good technologies replace much more fragile technologies of the past. Some of the crypto hype is neomania but the initial conception was to destroy the fragile central banking and soviet-Harvard illusions of collective control.
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Replying to @Ahimsa_Satya_ @nntaleb
I have been thinking about this "Good technologies replace much more fragile technologies of the past" and I am not sure this can be a blanket statement. New Technologies can be inherently more fragile by increasing productivity and hiding risk. But I get your point.
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Replying to @paulportesi @nntaleb
Right, we can’t really be sure if the new technology is “good” in that sense until time has proven its mettle
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Replying to @Ahimsa_Satya_ @nntaleb
Exactly. I wasn't trying to nitpick but your underlying premise is valid.
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Okay, I think I see the confusion, hey it helped to clarify!
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